Economic Research Articles

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"Economic Research Articles" are links to the full-text of research articles from all of the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Board of Governors, as well as other government agencies and private institutions. The articles are mostly non-technical in nature. Below are the most current articles. Browse the Articles Archive or Browse by Subject to find more articles.

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"Major Schools of Economic Theory"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2009.
Various modern economic theories and the major thinkers associated with each are briefly described.

"Purchasing Power Parity and the Dollar"
By Owen F. Humpage and Caroline Herrell
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, October 27, 2009.
In terms of purchasing power parity, the dollar seems a tad undervalued these days, but that does not mean it will soon appreciate. Exchange rates can deviate from their purchasing-power-parity levels for long periods. What’s more, the necessary adjustment can come through prices, not exchange rates.

"Increasing Political Freedom May Be Key To Reducing Threats"
By Craig P. Aubuchon, Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Javed Younas
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2009.
The root causes of terrorism might not be poverty and lack of education, as many believe. Rather, the lack of civil liberties, political rights and the rule of law might be more influential.

"Improving the Energy Performance of Buildings: Learning from the European Union and Australia" (PDF)
By Charles P. Ries, Joseph Jenkins, and Oliver Wise
Rand Corporation Technical Report, October 2009.
The United States can become more energy efficient and create more "green" jobs by adopting some of the strategies used by the European Union and Australia to rate and disclose the performance of commercial and government-owned buildings.

"World Trade: Pirated by the Downturn" (PDF)
By Roberto Coronado
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, Number 35, 2009.
A post-World War II record decline in world trade is likely in 2009.

"Building an International Research Collaboration in Early Childhood Education and Care" (PDF)
By Deborah Brennan
Social Policy Research Centre, Number SPRC Report 13/09, August 2009.
This report consists of background materials for a workshop on forming an international network of scholars and non-government organisations to encourage policy-relevant research on early childhood education and care across and between Australia, the UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden.

"Mexico’s Año Horrible: Global Crisis Stings Economy"
By Edward C. Skelton and Erwan Quintin
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2009.
Until September 2008, the global economic slump was expected to take a fairly limited toll on the Mexican economy. There was even talk that, for once, a U.S. recession would leave Mexico relatively unscathed. Over the past few months, however, this optimism has been replaced by increasingly dire predictions for the country’s near-term economic outlook.

"Rising Protectionist Threat Creates Risks for Texas"
By Edward C. Skelton and Michael Nicholson
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2009.
Economists endorse free trade because it creates healthier, more prosperous and more dynamic economies. Protectionism can sometimes provide fleeting benefits to specific domestic industries, but in the medium and long run it causes economic stagnation and inefficiency.

"Asset Prices and Their Effect on the U.S. Trade Balance" (PDF)
By Luciana Juvenal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, Number 31, 2009.
Pronounced cycles and booms in asset prices have usually accompanied widening trade deficits.

"Great Economists and Their Times"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1990.
This publication traces the development of the major schools of economic thought through the work of ten important economists. These economists were the leading exponents of their schools, and their ideas represent the major contributions to economic thought made by each school. A chronicle of historical events recounts the politics, social environment and intellectual climate of each decade in which the famous economists lived.

"The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Business Cycles" (PDF)
By Scott Brave
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Fed Letter, Number 268, November 2009.
This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—a monthly index designed to gauge economic activity and related inflationary pressures— can be used as an indicator of business cycle turning points.

"Recent Developments in Mortgage Finance"
By John Krainer
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco FRBSF Economic Letter, Number 2009-33, October 26, 2009.
This article summarizes some of the key ways the mortgage market evolved during the boom years and during the ensuing housing market bust. It focuses on changes in the way loans were made and funded and how loan characteristics themselves changed.

"Gearing Up for Green Jobs: What Can We Expect?"
By Jan Youtie
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Partners in Community and Economic Development, Volume 19, Number 1, 2009.
Policymakers looking for a silver lining to the dark cloud hovering over the U.S. economy are seeing green. But how much can we count on "green jobs" to jumpstart the recovery?

"Gauging Aggregate Credit Market Conditions"
By Jose A. Lopez
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco FRBSF Economic Letter, Number 2009-32, October 19, 2009.
The Fed has responded to the current financial crisis by pushing the federal funds rate, its key policy instrument, to historically low levels. Overall credit conditions since late 2007 have remained tighter than would have been expected based on historical experience. This tightness may be partly offsetting the Fed's policy actions.

"Weighing the Effects of Financial Education in the Workplace" (PDF)
By Kelly D. Edmiston, Mary C. Gillett-Fisher, and Molly McGrath
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper, Number RWP 09-01, October 16, 2009.
This study suggests that both employers and workers benefit from financial education programs in the workplace. Workers make better personal financial decisions and employers find themselves with less-stressed workers.

"The Effects of “Cash for Clunkers” on the Auto Industry"
By Kyle Fee
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, October 6, 2009.
Will the "Cash for Clunkers" program jump start the restructured auto industry or will it result in mere transitory demand shifts, “stealing” from future consumption?

"The Availability and Profitability of Credit Cards"
By Kent Cherny and O. Emre Ergungor
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, October 5, 2009.
Because they are not secured by marketable assets and have uncertain repayment periods, credit cards often carry substantially higher interest rates than secured debt like mortgages and auto loans. Interest rates for credit card holders have increased over the past two years.

"Housing's Great Fall: Putting Household Balance Sheets Together Again"
By William R. Emmons
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2009.
The simplest way to avoid another devastating housing crash and foreclosure crisis probably is to reduce household borrowing and, then, to keep it low.

"Regulating Carbon Emissions: The Cap-and-Trade Program"
By Cletus C. Coughlin and Lesli S. Ott
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2009.
The anti-pollution program in Congress contains desirable economic features. But a key component—an auction process covering all permits for carbon emissions—does not seem to be politically viable.

"The "Man-Cession" of 2008-2009: It's Big, but It's Not Great"
By Howard J. Wall
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2009.
That men are losing jobs at a much faster rate than women during this recession shouldn't be a surprise. The pattern is typical. And it's not just the men in the hard hats who are out of a job—men in almost all categories of work are being affected disproportionately.

"Strategies for success in financial education" (PDF)
By Robin Newberger and Anna L. Paulson
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Fed Letter, Number 267a, October 2009.
This article reviews some of the financial education activities throughout the Federal Reserve System.

"From Pathways to Policy: An Overview of Green Collar Jobs Advocacy" (PDF)
By Daniel DiFranco
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Fed Letter Special Issue, October 2009.
This article discusses the outlook for environmentally friendly renewable energy industries from the standpoint of job creation and career paths.

"Still Waiting: “Unfair or Deceptive” Credit Card Practices Continue as Americans Wait for New Reforms to Take Effect" (PDF)
By Nick Bourke and Ardie Hollifield
The Pew Charitable Trusts, October 2009.
This report examined all consumer credit cards offered online by the largest 12 bank issuers in America, and found that one hundred percent of credit cards offered online by the leading bank card issuers continue to include practices that will be outlawed once legislation passed in May 2009 takes effect in 2010.

"As College Costs Rise, Student Loans Are Harder to Find"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Inside the Vault, Fall 2009.
This issue can help families and high school students planning for college to answer some of the multiple questions they might have about how much college will cost, and how to pay for it.

"Spotlight on Research: Will Income Inequality Be Reduced by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009?"
By Marvin M. Smith
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Cascade, Number 72, Fall 2009.
What impact will the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 have on household income inequality? This concern is the subject of a study by Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Kijong Kim. The following is a summary of their findings.

"Spotlight on Research: Will Income Inequality Be Reduced by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009?"
By Marvin M. Smith
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Cascade, Number 72, Fall 2009.
What impact will the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 have on household income inequality? This concern is the subject of a study by Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Kijong Kim. The following is a summary of their findings.

"Strengthening the Low Income Housing Tax Credit Investment Market"
By Buzz Roberts
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Cascade, Number 72, Fall 2009.
This article describes proposals to strengthen the low income housing tax credit investment market.

"With the Dollar Depreciating, Can Inflation Be Far Behind?"
By Owen F. Humpage and Caroline Herrell
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, September 29, 2009.
Many people believe that a falling dollar in the foreign-exchange market portends future inflation. All and all, exchange rates do contain useful information for predicting inflation, but other factors besides monetary spurts affect dollar exchange rates, and these things make it difficult for exchange-rate changes to forecast future inflation patterns.

"The Supplemental Financing Program"
By Joseph G. Haubrich and John Lindner
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, September 28, 2009.
The Treasury's Supplemental Financing Program (SFP) was established during the 2008-2009 financial crisis to help the Federal Reserve manage the expansion of the reserve accounts being created by the infusion of new liquidity, but the program is actually an extension of the typical Treasury deposits held at the Federal Reserve.

"Raising automotive fuel efficiency" (PDF)
By Taft Foster and Thomas H. Klier
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Fed Letter, Number 266, September 2009.
The Obama administration recently moved up the schedule for achieving the fuel efficiency standards set forth by Congress in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The deadline for meeting these standards is now vehicle model year 2016 instead of 2020.

"Fed Policy in the Financial Crisis: Arresting the Adverse Feedback Loop"
By Danielle DiMartino and Jessica J. Renier
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter-Insights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Volume 4, Number 7, September 2009.
In early 2008, the FOMC warned of the danger of an adverse feedback loop, that is, a situation in which a tightening of credit conditions could depress investment and consumer spending, which, in turn, could feed back to a further tightening of credit conditions.

"The U.S. Economy and the Employment Challenge"
By Dennis P. Lockhart
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, August 26, 2009.
Remarks by Dennis P. Lockhart, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Chattanooga Area Chamber of Commerce, Chattanooga, Tennessee, August 26, 2009. Lockhart discusses the national economic situation and outlook, and employment.

"Health Care Cost Growth and the Economic Performance of U.S. Industries"
By Mary E. Vaiana
Rand Corporation, August 11, 2009.
A recent Rand study found that industries where a larger percentage of workers received employer-sponsored health insurance had significantly lower employment growth during the study period than industries where health benefits were less common.

"Did Welfare Reform Work for Everyone? A Look at Young Single Mothers"
By Mary Daly and Joyce Kwok
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco FRBSF Economic Letter, Number 2009-24, August 10, 2009.
Since Congress overhauled the U.S. welfare system in 1996, single mothers between 18 and 24 have reduced welfare dependency, increased workforce participation, and registered gains in household income. The group's growing attachment to the labor force means they may be better positioned to take advantage of unemployment insurance during the current recession.

"Examining the Housing Crisis by Home Price Tier" (PDF)
By Carlos Garriga and Michelle T. Armesto
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, August 2009.
The current housing crisis has been long and severe. Some areas of the country—particularly California, Florida, and Arizona—have been hit much harder than other areas, such as the Midwest. Another issue is that home price tiers—high-priced, mid-priced, and lower-priced homes—each responded differently to the mortgage boom and subsequent implosion.

"On the Bubble: When Real Estate's Long Haul Took a Shortcut"
By Ed English
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth, Volume 11, Number 3, Third Quarter 2009.
A home is often a person's biggest investment. But as home prices began their dramatic appreciation, the stage was set for the once-solid investment strategy to show cracks in the foundation.

"Vacancy Signs Dot Lodging Landscape"
By Lela Pratte
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth, Volume 11, Number 3, Third Quarter 2009.
The effects of the recession have finally caught up with the U.S. lodging industry. Leisure and business travel have fallen off as consumers and businesses tighten their purse strings. Hoteliers are trying to find creative ways to draw in customers and are waiting for a turn in the economic tide to bring travelers flooding back.

"Wage Disparities and Industry Segregation: A Look at Black-White Income Inequality from 1950-2000" (PDF)
By Nathan Marwell
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Profitwise News and Views Special Edition, July 2009.
The last 60 years have been a period of profound change for Black Americans relative to discriminatory laws, social and economic conditions, and cultural norms and beliefs. This article explores some of the economic ramifications of this change, focusing specifically on labor market and changes in income differentials between Black and White Americans.

"More than Their Share: Property Taxes in Atlanta Neighborhoods Hardest Hit by Foreclosures"
By Susan Adams
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Partners in Community and Economic Development, Volume 19, Number 1, 2009.
As the foreclosure crisis continues to decimate neighborhoods across the country, it leaves in its wake displaced families, vacant homes and the potential for inflated property taxes.

"Alton Comes to Grip with Industrial Decline"
By Susan C. Thomson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2009.
During the 1980s, the city of Alton, Illinois, 25 miles north of St. Louis and across the Mississippi—set to work on a master plan to re-create its riverfront. The city's investments have turned the once run-down downtown and unsightly riverfront into a tourist attraction.

"States Fight Foreclosure Rescue Scams"
By Keith L. Rolland
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Cascade, Number 72, Fall 2009.
This article describes ways in which Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware are fighting foreclosure rescue scams.

"Stimulus Bill Opportunities and Challenges for Delaware"
By Matthew P. Denn
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Cascade, Number 72, Fall 2009.
Delaware, like all other states, will reap significant benefits from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), but the state faces significant challenges in implementing the law as well.

"Pittsburgh's Labor Market Performance over the Recession"
By Kyle Fee
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends, September 23, 2009.
Pittsburgh’s local labor market has held up relatively well over this recession. Pittsburgh’s unemployment rate (7.5 percent) as of July 2009 is well below the nation’s (9.4 percent) and other large Fourth District metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

"Sports Still Draw Fans Despite Recession"
By Charles Davidson
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth, Volume 11, Number 3, Third Quarter 2009.
In sports, nothing succeeds like success. Buoyed by fan loyalty, teams at larger colleges and pro levels have mostly thrived despite the challenging economic climate. Smaller teams, though, are feeling the brunt of the down economy.

"Spotlight: Texas Wind Energy Tax Breaks, Transmission Lines Key to Growth"
By Jackson Theis
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2009.
Texas became the nation’s most prolific generator of wind power in the past decade, but the industry’s future growth will depend on tax incentives to make it cost competitive and new transmission lines to get electricity to consumers.

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